From: Adrian Tymes (wingcat@pacbell.net)
Date: Fri Aug 01 2003 - 17:51:58 MDT
--- Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal@smigrodzki.org> wrote:
> ### I wouldn't be surprised if the Pentagon went
> ahead with a covert futures
> market, open to FBI/Homeland
> Security?CIA/NSA/OtherUnheardOfSpyAgency
> employees, so as to allow aggregation of data among
> persons most likely to
> have data in the first place, with a big "Top
> Secret" stamp on it and some
> deniability (perhaps as in a tolerated semi-informal
> betting market to be
> ditched if the sanctimonious crowd gets wind of it).
> Almost all the benefits
> of PAM, none of the exposure to idiots.
Problem: the market attracts intel from people who
would not normally otherwise give intel. "Hmm. Big
brother Mufasa said he's gonna blow up that 'Merican
base tomorrow. I don't care for 'em either, but I
can get fifty bucks by betting that base will be
attacked within a week. That's a lot (to the
extremely poor masses that happen to exist - and
produce a lot of the terrorist front line - in
countries that produce terrorists, whether or not
there is any actual causality)! Hmm...yeah, sure I'll
place a bet. Go get 'em, big bro, so I can eat for a
month!"
Yes, the smart ones would know there's a connection.
Even assuming they'd care enough to forego their own
monetary gain, "smart" implies "smarter than average
for the given populace", and we's only need a few of
the remainder to get greedy.
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