From: Phil Osborn (philosborn2001@yahoo.com)
Date: Sun Apr 27 2003 - 17:38:34 MDT
I have been saying this for several months, but the
past week of PBS showings provides more confirmation.
Despite all the attempts to ascribe silly motives -
revenge for his dad, oil - to the Bush administration,
the real thread that seems consistent with everything
they have done and said (keeping in mind the
statements designed for mass media consumption) is a
well thought out plan to suck the world into a new
system.
The reason for the new system is pretty much as they
have stated it, but a little more radical. Basically,
they accept Conrad Schnieker's hypothesis about the
exponentially rising curve of cheap weapons of
annihilation - binary viruses, etc., which Conrad, one
of the originators of "nanotechnology" as a focused
movement and theory, stated in the late '70's. As
Conrad told me then, the only likely solution that
will enable a high-tech civilization to survive
long-term is universal surveillance. Check out the
flood of "tranparency" sites that have recently
emerged, following Brin's book. Same idea. The
alternative - that there is no solution - resolves
Fermi's hypothesis.
The time frame is the problem. Conrad and I, both
anarcho-capitalists, agreed that the state would
ultimately not be able to solve the problem. "Who
guards the guards?" Etc. Only a competitive system
centered around the rational costs of risk and risk
management, involving insurance companies primarilly,
would be able to properly balance marginal returns to
optimize such a system long term.
However, we are not there. Our anarcho-capitalist
utopia is decades off, and the threat of annihilation
is a bit closer. Not that Bush and Co. are likely to
be closet anarcho-capitalists... So, they use the
hammer they do have, the U.S. coercive military might.
However, they're not planning a new Roman empire, as
far as I can tell. Instead, they've used Afganistan
and now Iraq as demonstrations to the world as to
intent, capability, resolve... The rest of the world
can join the winning team or take their chances.
So, based on the Chronkite hosted Armaggedon series
and a host of other clearly orchastrated media events,
here it what to expect:
Bush & Co. will manipulate events to suck the majority
of the important world powers - the so-called "good
guys," all more or less democracies or otherwise
certifiable as "friendly" - into a coalition that will
back a joint force that will go into any country,
anywhere, anytime, if it is deemed necessary to clear
out terrorist camps. A few more examples may be made
- N. Korea is waving a red flag with a huge "target me
now" ideogram etched across, and they may fulfil their
own prophecy, altho it may be the Chinese, who want
the world to know that THEY are not irresponsible
terrorists (even if they are, whenever they think they
can get away with it) and are macho enough to do their
part for the new world order, not just wait for the
U.S. to run everything.
So it may well go. The real bad guys like Saddam will
fall all over themselves to invite the World Police
("World Security Forces?" - somebody come up with a
catchy name here...) inspectors in to verify that THEY
don't have any terrorists mixing up variants of SARS,
etc. - if they believe that the alternative is what
happened to Saddam.
So, the problem that Conrad identified may actually be
solved, short term, altho the solution will bring its
own serious problems.
Given that we're not likely to stop this from
happening if it's in the works, the question becomes
how to best deal with it and the new problems it will
introduce.
Possibilities:
The "nanocorp" movement is apparently growing like
wildfire and may quickly become international. I have
pushed something similar for decades now, based on the
"trust," however, instead of the corporation. Either
way, there is and will be a demand for nano-support,
nano-infrastructure, etc., which could involve easilly
standardized contracts, such as the universal social
contract that I have suggested, which could become a
world-unifying standard, and a grass-roots,
self-sustaining base from which to oppose the top-down
corporatization of the world that will try to take
advantage of this new world order. Not so much to
oppose it, however, as to offer solutions not
available to top-down structures.
Eg., the problem that Bush & Co. are faced with now re
the possibility that "democracy" in Iraq may well mean
another Iran, with enforced Shiite culture, forced on
all other groups in Iraq. How to deal with this and a
host of similar problems? How about a Swiss model
carried down to the individual level, with a social
contract to establish a base-line on which to build
local solutions? Perhaps most Shiites and other
potential democratic dictatorial groups would be
satisfied to impose their law on their own believers,
if a system were universally available to resolve
disputes outside the group in an equitable manner.
This may be more palatable if the alternative is a mix
of ongoing civil war and outside rule by the U.S.
Unlike "political" solutions per se, a social contract
based system would be fueled by the economic
advantages to the signatories, such as a means of
reducing risk enormously in dealing with trading
partners worldwide. Yet it could be used to solve a
host of political problems as a bonus.
So, we may not really be any worse off due to Bush &
Co., yet..., altho the civil rights violations
domestically as well as the wierd situation re "enemy
combatants" are certainly very scary and will have to
be resolved. I put some limited faith in our judicial
system to ultimately straighten that out into
something a little more consistent with our Bill of
Rights, at least. The world may actually be safer for
a decade or two due to Bush & Co./World Police Force,
altho there is always the risk that some of the
terrorist types may make a major move before they are
rooted out.
I.e., we may have a breather here in which to figure
out the real solutions.
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