Thanks Nick for this idea, one of the most interesting I have seen
Yours is the best demonstration of the existence of a "Christian God",
a potentially capricious being who runs the universe from the outside
and may be interested in the beings within his universe. Another way
to state the conclusions is that, given the assumptions, the
probability that I live in a universe created and run by a god is very
The logic as I understand it is: if humanity will develop and exploit
the resources to run simulations containing conscious humans, then the
number of conscious humans living in simulations is a very high
fraction of the total number of conscious humans. Consequently the
probability that I live in a simulation is high.
Perhaps the argument can be made even stronger by replacing "humans"
by "beings". So in order to refute the conclusion we would have to
assume that no sentient race ever develops the resources to run
simulations containing conscious beings, or that all sentient races
that have developed this resources choose not to exploit them.
Perhaps the mathematics of the proof does not work if you allow an
infinite number of conscious beings. This would be the case, for
example, if you do not assume that there is a bottom level of reality.
--- G.P. email@example.com
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