From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Mon Sep 08 2003 - 22:54:06 MDT
Suppose that a bowl has 5 red chips and 3 white chips. We sample chips
from the bowl using the following procedure: On each round we draw a
random chip, replace it, and then add another chip of the same color to
the bowl. For example, if on the first round we happen to draw a red
chip, there would then be 6 red chips and 3 white chips to draw from on
the second round.
Given that a white chip was drawn on the fourth round, what is the
probability that a white chip was drawn on the second round?
(This problem is extra bonus evil because it's so easy if you know the rules.)
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Mon Sep 08 2003 - 23:06:50 MDT