From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Thu Sep 11 2003 - 00:16:24 MDT
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
> Suppose that a bowl has 5 red chips and 3 white chips. We sample chips
> from the bowl using the following procedure: On each round we draw a
> random chip, replace it, and then add another chip of the same color to
> the bowl. For example, if on the first round we happen to draw a red
> chip, there would then be 6 red chips and 3 white chips to draw from on
> the second round.
>
> Given that a white chip was drawn on the fourth round, what is the
> probability that a white chip was drawn on the second round?
>
> (This problem is extra bonus evil because it's so easy if you know the
> rules.)
Evil Hint #1: Not only is it possible for you to do this problem in your
head, the answer can be obtained in ONE step.
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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