From: Adrian Tymes (wingcat@pacbell.net)
Date: Sat Aug 02 2003 - 15:22:32 MDT
--- Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal@smigrodzki.org> wrote:
> From: "Adrian Tymes" <wingcat@pacbell.net>
> To: <extropians@extropy.org>
> Sent: Friday, August 01, 2003 7:51 PM
> Subject: RE: NEWS:Why 'Terrordaq' will come - if the
> Pentagon likes it or
> not
> > --- Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal@smigrodzki.org> wrote:
> > > ### I wouldn't be surprised if the Pentagon went
> > > ahead with a covert futures
> > > market, open to FBI/Homeland
> > > Security?CIA/NSA/OtherUnheardOfSpyAgency
> > > employees, so as to allow aggregation of data
> among
> > > persons most likely to
> > > have data in the first place, with a big "Top
> > > Secret" stamp on it and some
> > > deniability (perhaps as in a tolerated
> semi-informal
> > > betting market to be
> > > ditched if the sanctimonious crowd gets wind of
> it).
> > > Almost all the benefits
> > > of PAM, none of the exposure to idiots.
> >
> > Problem: the market attracts intel from people who
> > would not normally otherwise give intel. "Hmm.
> Big
> > brother Mufasa said he's gonna blow up that
> 'Merican
> > base tomorrow. I don't care for 'em either, but I
> > can get fifty bucks by betting that base will be
> > attacked within a week. That's a lot (to the
> > extremely poor masses that happen to exist - and
> > produce a lot of the terrorist front line - in
> > countries that produce terrorists, whether or not
> > there is any actual causality)! Hmm...yeah, sure
> I'll
> > place a bet. Go get 'em, big bro, so I can eat
> for a
> > month!"
> >
> > Yes, the smart ones would know there's a
> connection.
> > Even assuming they'd care enough to forego their
> own
> > monetary gain, "smart" implies "smarter than
> average
> > for the given populace", and we's only need a few
> of
> > the remainder to get greedy.
>
> ### I notice you answered my post, which contained
> the following words: "a
> covert futures market, open to
> FBI/HomelandSecurity/CIA/NSA/OtherUnheardOfSpyAgency
> employees".
Mm-hmm. I was trying to show why limiting it to said
group would limit or negate the practical value of the
market, by showing where the real value (or, at least,
a good part of it) would in fact come from if open.
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