From: Samantha Atkins (samantha@objectent.com)
Date: Thu Jul 17 2003 - 17:19:10 MDT
On Thursday 17 July 2003 02:15, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On Wed, Jul 16, 2003 at 07:38:09PM -0700, Spike wrote:
> > Dynamic and practical optimism
> > has been more difficult in the last couple years,
> > has it not?
>
> Interesting point. I think this is part of the truth (I see the average
> mood of the computer science students at the Institute every day), but
> it is also a hint that we might be better off without "fair weather
> extropians". There was a technological determinism-optimism of 90s
> transhumanism that I have come to think of as both naive and
> passivating. It is not dynamic optimism: it is passive optimism. If
> the singularity is coming and Wired is always right, what use is there
> of doing anything except cheerleading?
>
Well, Wired stopped being relevant some time ago. There is still a fair
amount of technological determinism (Singularity is inevitable) to be had.
But I think you are right that the current conditions (all of them not just
economic suckiness) are a wake-up call that there is a great deal of work to
be done.
> Dynamic optimism is about actually doing something constructive. Sure,
> the IT sector is not doing great. But then we better invent new killer
> apps or find ways of using the existing in better ways. With cheap
> programming labor many new projects can be implemented that were too
> expensive before.
Actually, no they can't. It is *extremely* difficult to get funding for new
projects regardless of the cost of some levels of programming talent. On
projects I have been in the cost of programmers themselves was a most 30% and
usually a lot less. Senior people cannot be pulled just off the shelf at
whatever price. They usually also have fixed costs and overhead in their
lives that cannot be low-balled out of if they are to have any life at all or
be productive much less loyal. Management and marketing also are not
commodified. The market for the software is very soft due to across the
board economic uncertainty. So ROI cases are more difficult to make. So no,
cheaper programming labor does not translate into "many new projects".
> Personally I am *more* optimistic about the transhuman future today than
> I was just three years ago. We are finally starting to grow up.
I feel less optimistic primary for political and social reasons. We are
seriously invested in walking the path of fear using whatever technologies we
have and are soon to be created. This path leads to some very dystopian
outcomes. It has become harder to project a believable positive course.
- samantha
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Thu Jul 17 2003 - 17:26:31 MDT