From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Wed Jun 18 2003 - 10:38:47 MDT
Eliezer wrote:
> Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>>
>> ### For all the decades of unmet expectations, AI relied on computing
>> power of the order of an ant, and only recently, as Moravec writes,
>> did they graduate to the computing power of a mouse. Since AI on
>> ant-powered computers gave ant-powered results, and AI on
>> mouse-powered computers gives mouse-powered capacities (such as
>> target tracking, simple learning, simple motor control), we may
>> expect that AI on human-level computers will give human-level
>> results. Human-level computing power is going to be available to
>> SingInst in about 15 years, so we can expect the recursive
>> self-enhancement of the FAI to take off around that time.
>>
>> QED?
>
> No, unfortunately, as far as I can tell, we have *enough* computing
> power available for AI now. Yes, right now. *More* computing power
> will make it *easier*, again unfortunately so. At least with current
> computing power it should still be fairly *hard* for the standard
> flounder-around style of AI to get anywhere.
### Well, yes, this was meant as a conservative estimate for the consumption
of sceptics, to get them hooked on the idea of near-term Singularity, so in
the next step they can accept the prospect of a really immediate right-now
Singularity, right after SingInst gets the new Dell (or IBM or whatever)
workstations they hope to get funded (hint, hint).
Rafal
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