RE: greatest threats to survival (was: why believe the truth?)

From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Wed Jun 18 2003 - 09:07:22 MDT

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    Rafal Smigrodzki wrote,
    > Eliezer wrote:
    > > Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
    > >>
    > >> ### For all the decades of unmet expectations, AI relied on computing
    > >> power of the order of an ant, and only recently, as Moravec writes,
    > >> did they graduate to the computing power of a mouse. Since AI on
    > >> ant-powered computers gave ant-powered results, and AI on
    > >> mouse-powered computers gives mouse-powered capacities (such as
    > >> target tracking, simple learning, simple motor control), we may
    > >> expect that AI on human-level computers will give human-level
    > >> results. Human-level computing power is going to be available to
    > >> SingInst in about 15 years, so we can expect the recursive
    > >> self-enhancement of the FAI to take off around that time.
    > >
    > > No, unfortunately, as far as I can tell, we have *enough* computing
    > > power available for AI now. Yes, right now. *More* computing power
    > > will make it *easier*, again unfortunately so. At least with current
    > > computing power it should still be fairly *hard* for the standard
    > > flounder-around style of AI to get anywhere.
    >
    > ### Well, yes, this was meant as a conservative estimate for the
    > consumption of skeptics, to get them hooked on the idea of near-term
    > Singularity, so in the next step they can accept the prospect of a
    > really immediate right-now Singularity, right after SingInst gets
    > the new Dell (or IBM or whatever) workstations they hope to get
    > funded (hint, hint).

    What an interesting tactic! Are you saying that you realize these flaws in
    your argument, but you want to use them anyway, hoping that the public
    doesn't notice? I am not sure this tactic is wise. Doesn't it give
    opponents ammunition to point out how your argument is flawed? It seems to
    me that we would never want to deliberately spread misinformation, even if
    it supports our cause. 

    --
Harvey Newstrom, CISM, CISSP, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified InfoSec Manager, Certified IS Security Pro, NSA-certified
InfoSec Assessor, IBM-certified Security Consultant, SANS-cert GSEC
<HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>

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