From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Tue Jun 17 2003 - 15:33:34 MDT
Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
> ### For all the decades of unmet expectations, AI relied on computing
> power of the order of an ant, and only recently, as Moravec writes, did
> they graduate to the computing power of a mouse. Since AI on
> ant-powered computers gave ant-powered results, and AI on mouse-powered
> computers gives mouse-powered capacities (such as target tracking,
> simple learning, simple motor control), we may expect that AI on
> human-level computers will give human-level results. Human-level
> computing power is going to be available to SingInst in about 15 years,
> so we can expect the recursive self-enhancement of the FAI to take off
> around that time.
>
> QED?
No, unfortunately, as far as I can tell, we have *enough* computing power
available for AI now. Yes, right now. *More* computing power will make
it *easier*, again unfortunately so. At least with current computing
power it should still be fairly *hard* for the standard flounder-around
style of AI to get anywhere.
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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