From: gts (gts_2000@yahoo.com)
Date: Mon Jun 16 2003 - 00:30:48 MDT
Olga Bourlin wrote:
[gts wrote:]
>> For example I was there riding the saddle on "Black Monday", October
>> 19, 1987, when the market dropped something like 12% in one day.
>> People who got stopped out on that day now look like idiots. And the
truth is
>> that they really were idiots. Anyone who deviates from the buy and hold
>> strategy is living in a pipe dream.
>
> They were not idiots - they were smart. There was nothing
> preventing them from re-entering positions later...
No, they were idiots. The market bottomed that day.
You cannot argue that "People who failed to properly time the market at time
x but who might have timed it correctly later at time x+n would have beat
the market, so therefore market-timing is a valid enterprise."
But that is what you are arguing above.
The problem of beating the market is a much larger and more difficult
problem than I think you currently imagine or understand.
-gts
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