Re: Investing

From: Olga Bourlin (fauxever@sprynet.com)
Date: Mon Jun 16 2003 - 01:46:33 MDT

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    From: "gts" <gts_2000@yahoo.com>

    > Olga Bourlin wrote:
    >
    > [gts wrote:]
    > >> For example I was there riding the saddle on "Black Monday", October
    > >> 19, 1987, when the market dropped something like 12% in one day.
    > >> People who got stopped out on that day now look like idiots. And the
    > truth is
    > >> that they really were idiots. Anyone who deviates from the buy and hold
    > >> strategy is living in a pipe dream.
    > >
    > > They were not idiots - they were smart. There was nothing
    > > preventing them from re-entering positions later...
    >
    > No, they were idiots. The market bottomed that day.

    I didn't specify they should not have re-entered that day.

    What about people who were invested in March 2000? Would your advice have
    been to ride their $100+/share stocks down to the penny-stock ranks? If
    not, at what point would you have advised your clients to put a stop to
    their bleeding securities?

    > You cannot argue that "People who failed to properly time the market at
    time
    > x but who might have timed it correctly later at time x+n would have beat
    > the market, so therefore market-timing is a valid enterprise."

    Huh? I wasn't talking about properly timing anything. I was talking about
    minimizing one's risks with stops.

    > But that is what you are arguing above.

    I am? You took out the examples I gave you on DKWD and THC - that is what I
    was giving you as examples to my argument that it was wise to use stops.

    > The problem of beating the market is a much larger and more difficult
    > problem than I think you currently imagine or understand.

    I'll defer to your experience. But until I better understand what I
    currently don't seem to understand ... I'll keep using those stops.

    Olga



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