From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Sat May 31 2003 - 18:32:43 MDT
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jef Allbright" <jef@jefallbright.net>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
Sent: Saturday, May 31, 2003 2:31 PM
Subject: Re: Rationality of Disagreement (Was: Status of Superrationality)
> Robin Hanson wrote:
> > Jef Allbright wrote:
> >> To me the problem is simple in concept, but limited in practice. We
> >> can never have absolute agreement between any two entities, due to
> >> their different knowledge bases (experiences.) However, two rational
> >> beings can approach agreement as precisely as desired by analyzing
> >> and refining their differences. ... extrapolate any more limited
> >> concept of rational behavior to a timeless setting.
> >
> > The argument is *not* that eventually rational agents must come to
> > agree if they share enough experience and evidence. It is that they
> > must agree *immediately*, merely due to knowing each other's opinion,
> > without knowing their supporting evidence.
>
> I would expect the two Bayesians to immediately accept that each of their
> viewpoints are equally valid within each one's estimate of the range of
> uncertainty, but it seems to me that for them to immediately and
absolutely
> agree on the issue would require certainty that they perfectly understand
> each other's comprehension of the issue. For non-trivial issues I think
> this perfect understanding is almost never the case.
>
### A Bayesian A who doesn't understand an issue will not claim he does
(i.e. his utterances will reflect his level of understanding), therefore
another Bayesian B can safely accept his statements. In fact, it is
precisely in arguments where B has no priors at all, knows nothing
whatsoever, should B accept A's opinion immediately. In situations where
both A and B have some knowledge, but different opinions, they have to
assume they have different information about the issue, and proceed with
exchange of data before coming to a shared conclusion.
Rafal
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