From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Wed Apr 30 2003 - 15:45:42 MDT
owner-extropians@extropy.org wrote:
> Doomsday argument
>
>
> Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>>
>> ### At first I did come up with .5 as the answer, but it seemed too
>> simple, and I chose to get confused :-) Thanks for pointing this out.
>
> Yeh... well, you know my remedy for confusion.
>
>> Talking about simple probabilities, here is a problem which
>> initially baffled me:
>>
>> You play a game on TV. There is a large prize behind one of three
>> doors. You are given a chance to bet on opening one of them. After
>> you choose, the game's moderator will open one of the remaining two
>> doors, an empty one. You can now change your bet, choosing the door
>> that has not been opened, or you can stick with your initial bet.
>> The question is, what should you do:
>>
>> a) stick to your previous choice
>> b) flip a fair coin and either stick to your choice or choose the
>> one remaining door c) always choose the one other remaining door
>>
>> It's really simple.
>
> Here's another trick question that only the true Bayesian will
> resolve. You meet a mathematician. "How many children do you have?"
> you ask. "Two," he replies, "and at least one of them is a boy."
> What is the probability that they are both boys?
>
> I would *not* answer 1/3.
1/2 ?
Rafal
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