From: gts (gts_2000@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Apr 29 2003 - 18:30:52 MDT
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
> gts wrote:
>> It is reasonable to conclude that you came probably from the short
>> sequence, because the probability of finding yourself to be the 4th
>> ball in the long sequence is small by comparison.
>
> Suppose we implement this rule.
>
> There are two fourth balls. The fourth ball from the short
> sequence looks at itself, follows your argument, and says, "I must be in
the short
> sequence!" The fourth ball from the long sequence looks at itself,
> follows your argument, and says, "I must be in the short sequence!"
>
> We therefore find that the gts-conclusion "I must be in the short
> sequence!" calibrates to an actual 50% chance of being in the
> long sequence.
Your argument fails Eliezer because there are not two fourth balls. There is
only you, the observer.
-gtd
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Tue Apr 29 2003 - 18:42:04 MDT