RE: my objection to the Doomsday argument

From: gts (gts_2000@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Apr 29 2003 - 18:30:52 MDT

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    Eliezer S. Yudkowsky

    > gts wrote:

    >> It is reasonable to conclude that you came probably from the short
    >> sequence, because the probability of finding yourself to be the 4th
    >> ball in the long sequence is small by comparison.
    >
    > Suppose we implement this rule.
    >
    > There are two fourth balls. The fourth ball from the short
    > sequence looks at itself, follows your argument, and says, "I must be in
    the short
    > sequence!" The fourth ball from the long sequence looks at itself,
    > follows your argument, and says, "I must be in the short sequence!"
    >
    > We therefore find that the gts-conclusion "I must be in the short
    > sequence!" calibrates to an actual 50% chance of being in the
    > long sequence.

    Your argument fails Eliezer because there are not two fourth balls. There is
    only you, the observer.

    -gtd



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