From: Technotranscendence (neptune@mars.superlink.net)
Date: Sun Feb 16 2003 - 07:55:22 MST
This is Dennis May's reply to Robert Bradbury's. It appeared on
Starship_Forum.
Cheers!
Dan
http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/
From: Dennis May determinism@hotmail.com
To: Starship_Forum@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, February 15, 2003 11:51 PM
Subject: [Starship_Forum] Re: One solution to the Fermi Paradox
Dan Ust wrote:
> it's not that advanced ETIs would be afraid of humans
> as they are now, but of giving themselves away to
> other advanced ETIs that might see them as threats
> or rivals, right?
If you give yourself away to humans there is some
chance you are giving yourself away to many other
groups as well. An advanced group might be aware
that humans are a single breakthrough away from
regular space travel and WoMD which cannot be
guarded against. It is has been 100 years since
manned flight began. Who is to say we are more
than 10 years away from leaving the solar system?
I wrote:
>Weapons of mass destruction change everything.
>In space, the scale of mass destruction grows
>without bound.
Robert J. Bradbury [bradbury@aeiveos.com]
wrote:
> No it doesn't. There are "effective" limits on everything.
> Even the most energetic events in space such as
> stellar collisions or gamma ray bursts have effective
> ranges. If they didn't we would have been wiped
> out long ago.
I agree there are limits on how much energy can
be expended but effective WoMD do not depend
solely on energy expended. Strategy and information
is as important as energy resources.
The strategy of hiding does not favor weapons
which produce huge signatures. WoMD can exist
on a large scale without producing large
signatures. Bezerker nano-probes, carefully
directed kinetic energy particles, or neutral
particle beams might only be be detected
along the directed path or by having competing
probes near by.
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
> An intelligent civilization where individuals seek to
> live indefinitely has to adopt a form of a
> distributed replicated intelligence.
Distributing your intelligence also brings dangers
of compromise. Communications between distribution
points can be intercepted, distributed portions may
be captured and analyzed, and distributed portions
may become corrupted or evolve independently.
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
> This thought vector subsequently led to the design
> civilizations spanning solar system sized scales
> (e.g. Matrioshka Brains). The size limits for
> Matrioshka Brain civilizations powered by sol type
> (G) stars are around 3 light years in diameter.
> Hurling an asteroid or a comet at such a
> civilization isn't going dent its capacities even
> slightly, though it might annoy it (which is
> probably *not* a good idea).
Moving from the initial conditions of today it would
seem unlikely to me that a technological civilization
would remain rooted around any particular star or energy
source when so little energy is required for brains,
travel, or civilizations to exist. During the transition
time from the beginnings of space travel to grand
civilizations spanning light years WoMD capable of
destroying all gains in between will be plentiful. Big
centralized targets in the process of being built are
fine targets for fusion bombs which can vaporize whole
continents for less cost than a single space shuttle
flight.
I wrote:
>How can space tyrants disarm a populace when dual
>use includes WoMD capabilities?
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
>This is still thinking too much along the lines of primitive human
> space travel. Things are quite different when one takes
> ones entire star system on the journey.
What military advantage is there in creating a large
painted target versus a dispersed unseen one?
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
> If you expect to extend your longevity to stellar time
> scales you simply have to become a distributed
> replicated intelligence.
If you are distributed and stealthy I can agree.
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
> But the universe has not reached the point where
> there are resource shortages that would tend to
> promote interstellar warfare. For now there are
> lots of resources to supply the development of
> multiple advanced civilizations.
Resources competition is not the only possible
source of conflict. Besides religion, philosophy,
and ambition, all it takes is one teenage hacker
with self replicating nano-technology in space
turning loose bezerkers and endless conflict is
the result.
Because it is never possible to expand civilizations
faster than it is possible for geometric replication
to fill the expanding sphere of influence left behind,
those thinking ahead realize any encounter involves
competition in the long run. Even your own distributed
intelligence will compete among its own parts if it
replicates beyond its ability to maintain centralized
control.
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
>All but the most advanced civilizations must generate
>heat at detectable levels. Any civilization with advanced
> observational capabilities will know where you are
> and what your development (energy) level is unless
> you choose to live within a dust cloud.
If you are nomadic, stealthy, and distributed the exact
extent of your civilization will become less and less
certain with time. A knowledge of the unpredictability
of chaotic systems and stealth communications will be
important in preventing military competitors from being
certain of your disposition.
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
>Advanced civilizations care little about our current WoMD.
No doubt this is true today. Geometric replication
and advancing technology can change this in short
order. The time scale others plan on may be entirely
different than how we plan things.
Please forward to other lists as desired.
Dennis May
~ * ~
Starship Forum website:
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