From: Technotranscendence (neptune@mars.superlink.net)
Date: Tue Feb 18 2003 - 19:41:00 MST
One last one, I think... After this, just look in the archives for
Starship Forum at:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Starship_Forum/
Cheers!
Dan
http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/EvilHour.html
From: Dennis May determinism@hotmail.com
To: Starship_Forum@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, February 18, 2003 7:22 PM
Subject: [Starship_Forum] Re: Dennis May replies/was Re: One solution to
the Fermi Paradox
I wrote:
>I see interlacing civilizations of nomads,
>not colliding brick walls. Sort of like
>different species of bees forming dispersed
>swarms. One swarm can pass right through
>another without conflict.
Lee Corbin [lcorbin@tsoft.com] wrote:
>At some early stages of the Von Neumann probe
>dispersal, this seems right. But then as one
>civilization begins using all available matter
>ruthlessly grasping for every cycle of compute
>power, this passes, I'd say.
Competition between groups, particularly given WoMD, will prevent every
speck of matter from being used. Civilizations have continual internal
struggles for power which can become very dramatic with increasing size
and complexity. The existence of geometrically replicating von Neumann
probes would only increase the possibilities for military tension
between competitors. Why would any group willingly give up resources to
competitors which might overwhelm you with geometric replication.
If it became apparent that nano-technology was taking over a planet,
denying those resources to my human group, it would be time to unleash
round the clock H-bombs until the nano-technology was stopped.
Why is it assumed that consuming every speck of matter for computational
purposes is an optimal situation? Any given individual within this
scenario would be better off if unused resources were readily available
rather than having to displace a competitor already controlling every
speck of matter.
With WoMD [geometric destruction] and geometric replication [von Neumann
probes/biological systems] it is not obvious that there will ever be any
situation where everything is used up. It is my considered opinion that
the cost function of destruction is much cheaper than that of
replication. That is the primary reason for the stability of the
stealth, nomadic, decentralized civilizations. Dispersal increases the
cost function of WoMD to the point that a steady state of
replication/destruction is created. The sparseness of this steady state
will be directly related to the technology available and physical first
principles limiting WoMD and information technology. Since information
exposes you to WoMD I expect very, very sparse dispersals will be
required in the long run. Communication will need to be nearly
impossible to distinguish from white noise. Leave little evidence of
your passing and pass through quickly. von Neumann probes would find
their greatest use in pre-positioning supplies which only you are able
to locate easily. Your von Neumann probes will have to quietly hunt
other von Neumann probes or be exposed themselves.
Dennis May
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