From: Reason (reason@exratio.com)
Date: Sun Jan 12 2003 - 15:44:02 MST
----> Extropian Agro Forestry Ventures Inc.
>>>>>
> This thought experiment is based on the premise that in 2010 the ability
> to fix all major medical problems has been achieved (heart attack,
> stroke, cancer and lung problems) and that by 2015 the ability to
> achieve some forms of youthful appearance will have been achieved
> (non-wrinkly skin, no moles, hair regrowth, control of hair colour).
You won't even be close to fixing the major causes of death by 2010.
If by 2005 we fully understand how to isolate, cultivate and amplify
adult stem cells (pretty unlikely as well IMO), then you might begin
to make a major dent in the major causes of death starting around 2020
(at least in the well developed countries). Even when you have fixed
the major causes of death, it seems likely that a host of new ailments
(akin to Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, etc., i.e. late onset diseases)
will begin to appear as you start having more people push into their
110's, 120's, etc. Those may require decades of study to unravel and
fix.
There is also a slice of society which does not wish to live long because
they either feel death is natural or inevitable and efforts to defeat death
are a waste of time and resources.
There is a segment of society that feels that if they personally cannot live
forever then no one else should either.
"why should Bill Gates live forever and not me?"
What is required is to develop a stategy to "transform swords into
ploughshares", a Manhatten project on a global scale to transform the human
condition into the transhuman condition.
"as Nero fiddles Rome burns"
Can any of us suggest an overarching methodology to accelerate this
process and increase its efficiency?
<<<<<
We have a very similar example right in front of us: the fight against AIDS
over the last 20 or 25 years. It all mirrors very nicely; the changing of
minds, the hectic research, the intense activism. If you look at how
activism shaped cultural perceptions and flows of money going into AIDS
research during the 80s, it's very impressive.
The fight against aging could be played in the same way, if similarly
effective activism and awareness organizations can be created. I agree that
this is a long-term project; anyone likely to die in the next 30 years
should be hedging with cryonics. The alternative is pretty grim, however --
if we don't undertake this project, there is nothing to say that radical
life extension *will* happen fast enough to save those of us reading this.
Governments can block research. Finding cures for aging could turn out to be
far harder and more complex than imagined (as has happened with AIDS). There
really isn't any margin for sitting around and contemplating this sort of
thing.
Reason
http://www.exratio.com/
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