From: avatar (avatar@renegadeclothing.com.au)
Date: Sun Jan 12 2003 - 21:04:58 MST
"Robert J. Bradbury" <bradbury@aeiveos.com
comments on: Immortals born from 1910 and on...
Thanks for your comments. As always I give all views carefull consideration, even when I disagree with assessments.
The major causes of immediate death i.e. what will kill you when you reach 60 or 70 are heart attacks, stroke, cancer, infections (particularly lung) and lung problems. Brain diseases are more complex but will probably not kill you directly immediately. It may take a decade to really reduce your intelligence. These problems will be fixed (at the palliative level) mostly in 2010 and then progressively in the following years. As an example in another area (of no existence statistically, but anyhow) I had leukaemia a few years ago. Then virtually nothing was known about its cause. Drugs had increased your chances from a few days to 3 years in the 70s to 6 years in 1996 (without a transplant: even then your chances were less than 75% after the transplant). Now they know over half of the cause and have just produced a blocker with 90% effectiveness, and possibly soon to be 99% effectiveness. It doesn't cure the problem entirely, but it works in practice. One pill a day, few side effects. I had a transplant myself, but I am blown away. By 2010 I expect to see artificial and mould grown (3D assembler) hearts, for example. As for stem cells, I'm not sure what the exact state of play will be. The nature of the Singularity (which I realize you don't believe in) will ensure that jumps at the end of the process of the predawn will be immense. What is impossible in 2006 will be routine in 2009.
You wrote: "It seems likely that a host of new ailments
(akin to Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, etc., i.e. late onset diseases)
will begin to appear as you start having more people push into their
110's, 120's, etc. Those may require decades of study to unravel and
fix."
Maintaining a body even with vast computing resources through techniques derived outside nanotech and molecular supercomputers inside cells and between them will be trickier. Some 70 in 2010 will be 120 in 2060. Enough said.
You wrote: "Assembler technology is not required. A path to manufacture real nanoscale
machines, e.g. real nanorobots, *is* required (I've discussed one in my
Protein Based Assembly of Nanoscale Parts paper). The singularity is not
required either. Significant increases in computing capacity will probably
make things go faster because it will speed up the semi-automation of the
design of nanoscale parts and the simulation of functional nanomachines."
The more paths the better. The Singularity for me is a process as much as anything and one already present. Current measurements indicate it achieves 30 to 40 per cent of its growth in under a second. You don't have to believe this. If I'm wrong I'll buy you a beer.
You wrote: "Morris Johnson wrote:
What all these numbers suppose is that ever increasing amounts of planetary resources are devoted to longevity.
We see however, ever increasing resources devoted to palliative care technologies . It is not currently assumed by government and major planners that living extremely long or even forever is achievable, desirable or just plain in the interests of those with the control of the major economic elements.
If the world's resources used for creation of death, scrapping over scarce resources both in a military nation to nation sense and a non-military market control struggle are added to the cost for policing and security it clearly dominates the pie. Those profiting from this portion of the pie have to first decide to stop creating profits from death and decide alternatively to create profits from life."
Actually, in Australia military expenditure is 3% of the pie, and the police force is small by ancient measures, 1 per 500 persons. What we spend lots of money on is education, healthcare, roads and buildings. In nearly all ancient developed societies there were two fairly everpresent sets of bebaviour, firstly the kind got 25% of the total take and the nobility 25% and the army and taxation officers about 10%, secondarilly in agriculturally based civilizations (pre-inducstrial) there is always a 3-15% of population bottom class of "surplus" persons without means of support due to population growth (despite death rates). These people often suffered badly and died young.
As a society the road to immortality means that we have to embrace biotech, nanotech and in particular the health system in general. That's true. If it means cutting military and roads and buildings - so what? Buildings are cheap as chips in nanotopia, as you know.
I presume people will want to be young. We spend as much now on weight loss and botox and all the rest as cancer research. So far the cat hasn't approached the bowl of milk, but once it smells it the cat will come running, believe me. You'd have more chance of cancelling baseball than restricting longevity therapies to Bill Gates, who I don't think would agree to being sole recipient anyway. The key aspect is youthful appearance. Not many people like being wrinkled old monkeys at 120 years, but most like being bronzed athletic teenagers.
Following immortality the big issue of course is population control. This requires information not present at the current time relating to cosmology. As a base minimum, with the equivalent of 40 Earth bodies in the Oort cloud and water on Mars (estimated time for terraforming with nanotech 20 years) we have a few centuries to discuss the issues. However cosmological information should become available in decades and make the debate more accurate.
For the present, I believe governments will argue purely in terms of extension of lifespans for a century or two and maximum application of therapies for youthful appearance. This is politically more palatable. The 50s generation will worry about the abolition of the family and the relevance of Christianity (int he West) and the 60s generation will worry about overpopulation. We can expect waves of cultural shock at various points as the reality begins to set in.
Towards Ascension
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