From: Extropian Agro Forestry Ventures Inc. (megao@sk.sympatico.ca)
Date: Sun Jan 12 2003 - 10:03:59 MST
From:
"Robert J. Bradbury" <bradbury@aeiveos.com>
On Sun, 12 Jan 2003, avatar@renegadeclothing.com.au>wrote:
Subject:
Immortals born from 1910 and on...
They wrote:
A
> This thought experiment is based on the premise that in 2010 the
ability
> to fix all major medical problems has been achieved (heart attack,
> stroke, cancer and lung problems) and that by 2015 the ability to
> achieve some forms of youthful appearance will have been achieved
> (non-wrinkly skin, no moles, hair regrowth, control of hair colour).
R
You won't even be close to fixing the major causes of death by 2010.
If by 2005 we fully understand how to isolate, cultivate and amplify
adult stem cells (pretty unlikely as well IMO), then you might begin
to make a major dent in the major causes of death starting around 2020
(at least in the well developed countries). Even when you have fixed
the major causes of death, it seems likely that a host of new ailments
(akin to Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, etc., i.e. late onset diseases)
will begin to appear as you start having more people push into their
110's, 120's, etc. Those may require decades of study to unravel and
fix.
A
> It is also premised on the notion that once assembler technology is
> achieved (I predict in 2020, but this date is not crucial) it in
> conjunction with the Singularity and advances in computing will allow
> for rapid movement from projected lifespan extension of decades and
> centuries to indefinite extension.
R
Assembler technology is not required. A path to manufacture real
nanoscale
machines, e.g. real nanorobots, *is* required (I've discussed one in my
Protein Based Assembly of Nanoscale Parts paper). The singularity is
not
required either. Significant increases in computing capacity will
probably
make things go faster because it will speed up the semi-automation of
the
design of nanoscale parts and the simulation of functional nanomachines.
A
2010 to 2019. This generation, after 2015 in particular, is used to its
parents being young. They have no expectation of ageing beyond maturity
or having to die. In the Third World, increased affluence due to
pre-assembler nanotechnology and the general Singularity and birth
control as well as perceptions of immortality lead to a reduced birth
rate, although this is offset by women being able to have children at
any stage. In this period political power is shared between the 1950s
generation (who would have earlier expected to retire at this stage) and
the 1960s generation. Wild swings in public perception and debate occur
as cultural templates as old as humanity and ones set up during the last
three centuries (when Western society began to have large numbers of
physically aged persons) are abandoned and others emphasized with new
vividness. The expectation of true immortality from assembler technology
and artificial and enhanced intelligence sets in.
I note that if a certain number of people end up living forever, then
they are actually and objectively immortal now but do not yet recognize
it. Because longevity techniques are acquired over a number of years and
can take. various forms, immortality can be conceived as a streaming
process.
Morris Johnson wrote:
What all these numbers suppose is that ever increasing amounts of
planetary resources are devoted to longevity.
We see however, ever increasing resources devoted to palliative care
technologies . It is not currently assumed by government and major
planners that living extremely long or even forever is achievable,
desirable or just plain in the interests of those with the control of
the major economic elements.
If the world's resources used for creation of death, scrapping over
scarce resources both in a military nation to nation sense and a
non-military market control struggle are added to the cost for policing
and security it clearly dominates the pie. Those profiting from this
portion of the pie have to first decide to stop creating profits from
death and decide alternatively to create profits from life.
Yes technology has advanced as a result of most human endvours lately,
but the cost in terms of resources expended is monumental.
There is also a slice of society which does not wish to live long
because they either feel death is natural or inevitable and efforts to
defeat death are a waste of time and resources.
There is a segment of society that feels that if they personally cannot
live forever then no one else should either.
"why should Bill Gates live forever and not me?"
What is required is to develop a stategy to "transform swords into
ploughshares", a Manhatten project on a global scale to transform the
human condition into the transhuman condition.
"as Nero fiddles Rome burns"
Can any of us suggest an overarching methodology to accelerate this
process and increase its efficiency?
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jan 15 2003 - 17:35:51 MST