RE: Fermi "Paradox"

From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Mon Aug 04 2003 - 00:43:53 MDT

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    On Sun, 3 Aug 2003, Lee Corbin (commenting on my comments) wrote:

    Re: copying vs. moving information...

    > Listen, as hard as it will be---I admit---to broadcast
    > information, that pales in comparison to the difficulty
    > of moving it. You aren't making any sense, are you?

    I just don't know. Robert Freitas has made documented
    arguments on the advantages to sending probes rather
    than radio signals. [And when Robert F. talks I tend
    to try and listen closely.] I've thought about the
    "broadcast" perspective -- you have to setup a very
    large "grid" of parallel high power laser transmitters
    then on the receiving side you need an even larger grid
    of receiving telescopes. And that is even to get some
    small fraction of the information content of a system.

    So whether one sends information densely packed into
    a "probe" or whether one sends information via radio
    (really silly), light, or UV I don't know -- I just
    strongly suspect the amount that can be sent is very
    very small relative to the amount available.

    So my assertion would be that advanced stellar civilizations
    are in effect "isolated". Its kind of like being at a
    party -- you can see virtually everyone as you gaze around
    the room but you can't speak with any of them.

    > Yes, so (as we agree in the subsequent part of your email),
    > eventually the "stay at homes" could fall behind technologically.

    Yes, but you seem to be assuming that there are no technological
    limits. I've read a fair amount of literature on the physics of
    computation, nanotechnology, etc. and there *are* limits. (The
    paper that Anders published in JET several years ago documents
    a number of these.)

    It currently looks to me like any reasonably advanced technological
    civilization hits the limits so quickly (hundreds to thousands of
    years) that anything after that doesn't really matter.

    > Their story is old hat. Why does anything need to be
    > sacrificed: what stays here stays here, and I transmit
    > as much as possible (copying, *not* moving) of myself
    > to the least amount of matter than we have to send to
    > constitute a receiver.

    But *why* would you create Lee II when Lee II cannot significantly
    benefit Lee I and Lee II (and Lee II's offspring) could potentially
    be competing against you for resources when they start getting scarce
    in the universe?

    You have to create an "enslaved" Lee II that is permanently
    loyal to Lee I which means that its usefullness is limited
    because you have to limit its freedom to evolve.

    Would Great Britian or Spain have allowed the colonization of
    the U.S. if they could have anticipated the creation of a nation
    that would defeat them in various wars?

    > But you have not explained why creatures more advanced
    > than we are could not be living right here.

    Hmmm... I thought I had. The local environment is inhospitable
    to the creation of optimal computing structures (at least of
    one type that I have envisioned). You simply *cannot* do
    it "here" without disassembling the galaxy. Even if that
    were feasible, in the universe, as it is currently structured,
    it is much cheaper to simply leave a galaxy.

    But I will grant completely that "aliens" in the form of a
    distributed nanoscale intelligence could be living all around
    us. I would also likely grant other types of intelligences
    living within our solar system unnoticed by us (e.g. Clarke's
    obelisk, etc.). But the only reasons I can come up with
    for such efforts would be (a) entertainment value or (b)
    regulation value (should we at some point present a threat
    to the galactic club).

    > Still, *here*, there is plenty of energy going to waste!
    > Some parts of them would be here, and using that energy,
    > even if it was not up to the speeds achievable outside the galaxy.

    Energy, at this stage of the development of the Universe, is
    *not* in short supply. One can star-lift normal stars, harvest
    brown dwarfs for hydrogen, graze on molecular clouds, etc.

    What may be of more interest from a longer term perspective are
    safety and security. You are still thinking from a "natural"
    evolution point of view -- i.e. "I have to replicate (copy)
    myself". You have not made the transition to the "directed"
    evolution point of view -- i.e. "What is best for my long term
    self-preservation and/or development?" I believe that all
    advanced civilizations will make that transition.

    Robert



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