From: Jef Allbright (jef@jefallbright.net)
Date: Sun Aug 03 2003 - 22:32:24 MDT
Spudboy said:
> jef said:
>
> I think it's most likely there are "old folk" out there who's activities
are
> inscruitable and invisible to us, but rather than existing sedately I
expect
> they're experiencing life at a level of complexity and meaning beyond our
> current comprehension.
>
> 1. Observation: Why not just substitute space intelligences for God? Its
fits the
> description, at least in my head.
I'm not sure I understand your point here, unless you are suggesting that
this might account for various god myths, based on assumed interaction
between highly advanced "space intelligences" and ancient humans. I don't
see any need to hypothesize God(s), whether as "space intelligence" or
otherwise.
> 2. Obervation: Your depiction is seconded by Hans Moravec, in Robot; who
wondered
> if the reason the sky was silent is because all civilizations progress
until they gain
> an access to "interpretation space" which itself is some kind of phase
space of
> spacetime.
Perhaps I should add this to my reading list. Thanks. I haven't read
Moravec, but Greg Egan has certainly been a strong influence on my thinking.
It seems to me that the technological development of civilizations would
tend to the following pattern:
(1) Evolutionary progess to a level of capability similar to ours
currently, (radio, electrical power, geo-scale construction, limited space
travel) where some artifacts would become visible outside their planetary
system,
soon followed by
(2) converging and accelerating knowledge base leading to either
self-destruction or (optimistically) a new and relatively stable plateau
constrained by the difficulties of dealing with intrasteller mass and
distance. In the optimistic scenario, the civilization would work within
these physical constraints, and free of the instinctual drive to expand
simply for the sake of expansion, would make highly efficient use of local
mass and energy, and focus on local development (exploring all conceivable
forms of knowledge and interaction) leading to a very small observable
signature on the galactic scale.
followed eventually by (crystal ball now vanishingly unreliable)
(3) expansion on the level of stellar engineering and greater.
I suspect that the key to understanding the Fermi "paradox" is that most or
all civilizations are at the level 2 plateau, and thus virtually
undetectable for a long period of time. Given the relatively young universe
in which we find ourselves, isn't it likely that no one as far as we can
tell has yet made it to level 3? What is our best informed estimate of the
duration of level 2?
- Jef
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