From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@tsoft.com)
Date: Wed Jul 23 2003 - 20:30:07 MDT
Rafal writes
> >... Let's say that a reliable modeling method predicts that
> >the existence of more than N independent volitional systems (minds with
> >independent, self-modifiable goals) within a volume of space inevitably
> >results in a destructive chain reaction of internecine warfare.
What evidence do we have that that would be the *usual* outcome?
One experiment with mice?
Consider human history itself for the best counterexample.
Warfare was endemic among our remote ancestors (for the most
part) and the last six hundred years have shown almost a
linear uniform decline in warfare.
(The probability of any given individual dying in a war has
gone from, I'd roughly guess, 1 in 10, down to about 1 in
10,000---at most.)
Now, of course, the reason for this tremendous improvement is
not any change in human nature---at least no change in our
genetics (which probably accounts for most of our nature).
The reason is very simple: before, it was much more profitable
to seize your neighbor's wealth (if possible) than to create
any directly. Now, with the destructiveness of modern war,
all that has changed.
Pace the enthusiasts on starship forum (or whatever it is),
there will be little in the way of future war, for the express
reason that things worth having in the future (information)
will be far easier to booby-trap than gold was.
So I cannot imagine that your mouse experiment is the correct
extrapolation.
Lee
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jul 23 2003 - 20:38:05 MDT