From: Kevin Freels (megaquark@hotmail.com)
Date: Tue Jul 22 2003 - 18:53:26 MDT
OK. I haven't quite got the hang of this list yet. It's hard to tell
sometime who said what. One of you said:
"Doesn't mean that a few civilizations might not get it wrong from
time to time -- but if there is a "Galactic Club" established it
seems likely that it will quickly crack down hard on such foolish
civiliztions."
We could solve this one quite easily. Let's send a probe and see if the
"Galactic Club" steps in!
----- Original Message -----
From: "Robert J. Bradbury" <bradbury@aeiveos.com>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2003 5:48 PM
Subject: Re: Fermi "Paradox"
>
> On Tue, 22 Jul 2003, Mark Walker (responding to my comments)
> wrote:
>
> [Mark, please read all the way to the end of this -- you offer
> an observation there that I did not have the perspective of
> in responding to the general discussion through much of the text.]
>
> > Robert, I don't get the feeling you take serious the "just one problem"
or
> > what we might think of as "the iron laws of galactic history" problem.
>
> I understand your point. I'll try to provide some justification.
>
> > It looks like we will soon have the technology to send out a genesis
probe (the
> > von Neumann machine on the end of a rocket).
>
> Yep. But it raises the question:
> (a) Why in the blazes would one do that? Given that it may be sowing
> the seeds for the destruction of oneself or ones civilization).
> [For the sowing of a genesis probe to make sense you also have
> to argue that the civilization is monumentally stupid or
> self-destructive (in the long run)].
> (b) One has to argue that SR probes will not have been eliminated by
> more advanced civilizations (as a really bad idea).
>
> So one is only left with the possibility that a very "early" advanced
> technological civilization sent out SR-probes (which will ultimately
> come back to haunt it) and they managed to get a sufficient foothold
> to allow their survival before more sensible minds came to dominate
> the environment.
>
> This scenario *may* have happened in some galaxies -- which is why
> I view the exploration of what is "out there" with some interest.
> (I'll note this week we seem to have both observations that stars
> with higher metal content are more likely to have jupiter class planets
> as well as the fact that there seem to be galaxies that only consist
> of hydrogen gas (given our limited observational capabilities)...
> There are a *lot* of possibilities that we have not considered.
>
> > If we don't send out such a
> > probe it looks for all the world that this must be a political decision.
>
> No -- absolutely not. Not sending out a SR probe is ultimately
> a "survival decision". One does *not* want ones foolish youthful
> decisions ("oh -- lets just see what is out there") to come back
> to haunt you in old age as in ("oh dad, I notice that my sun is running
> out of hydrogen so why don't I simply 'borrow' some from your sun").
>
> Duh... I think even spike would be willing to agree that this
> isn't "rocket science".
>
> Doesn't mean that a few civilizations might not get it wrong from
> time to time -- but if there is a "Galactic Club" established it
> seems likely that it will quickly crack down hard on such foolish
> civiliztions.
>
> Here is an interesting question (for an advanced civilization) --
> If there *were* a "Galactic Club" (something that you cannot in
> any way be certain of due to speed-of-light delays in ones
> knowledge of the state of the galaxy) -- how would one view
> a civilization that would behave so stupidly as to send out
> SR probes in a Universe that one suspects (given current
> observations) has finite resources? (So one is going to have
> to eliminate the self-replicators *sooner or later*.)
>
> > Are there galactic iron laws that prohibit us from doing this?
>
> No -- but I think there may be logical conclusions that any
> rational species may reach and therefore they end up becoming
> the "law of the land".
>
> So you have to argue that there are "advanced technological
> civilizations" that are quite misinformed (i.e. they have
> not bothered to scan the galaxy for signs of intelligent
> activity -- [note I said "signs" and not "communication"])
> or else they are not rational.
>
> It might be an interesting discussion -- "what would be the
> longevity of a non-rational civilization?" (We can use humanity
> as a marker perhaps -- we may be pushing towards 10,000 years with
> semi-rationality.)
>
> > [snip] then one of them would have done
> > the imprudent thing long ago and there should be genesis probes here
right
> > now.
>
> Yep, one can be "imprudent". Going in that direction raises any
> number of questions. I'll point out only two:
> (a) how can one guarantee there is not an alien presence within this
> solar system specifically tasked with keeping us from behaving
> imprudently? It doesn't even have to be particularly intelligent
> (how intelligent does it have to be to prevent SR probes from
> leaving the solar system...);
> (b) Have you seriously considered the intelligence scales? An
> MBrain has around 10^42 OPS. A probe has what 10^13? (Somewhat
> less than a human even if you are using moderately advanced tech).
> Can you seriously propose that the "imprudent" behavior is going
> to survive in galaxy where "prudent" behavior has a selective
> advantage?
>
> > I can
> > easily imagine a group of Nietzscheans saying that they think launching
a
> > genesis probe is the highest manifestation of their will to power,
>
> Good example *but* I think you need to qualify it as being a bunch
> of extremely unintelligent Nietzscheans who really do not care about
> their own survival. And they only get lucky if they "happen" to
> exert their "power" at the precise point in galactic evolution when
> it might be successful. And given the speed of light delays there
> is probably no way of knowing that. So they are playing a very high
> stakes game. And in most high stakes games one loses.
>
> > It seems to me that if
> > there are a reasonable number of advanced civilizations then there must
be
> > iron laws: political laws stopping genesis probes--a galactic UN of
> > sorts--or some as yet unknown laws of the universe that prevent the
> > launching of a genesis probe.
>
> Ah-ha -- so we come to some meeting of the minds -- perhaps. There
> may not be "political" rules preventing probes but there may be both
> some logical rules (that civilizations impose upon themselves) as
> well as interdiction efforts (imposed by any galactic clubs). Where
> *we* (humanity) reside in this development process needs quite a bit
> more information before we can make any well qualified judgements
> I would feel.
>
> Robert
>
>
>
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