Re: More Hard Problems Using Bayes' Theorem, Please

From: Damien Broderick (damienb@unimelb.edu.au)
Date: Mon Jul 07 2003 - 23:59:29 MDT

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    At 01:19 AM 7/8/03 -0400, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:

    >> In front of me is one barrel containing 25 red tokens and 75 blue
    >> tokens, and another barrel containing 75 red tokens and 75 blue tokens.
    >> I select a barrel at random (i.e., by flipping a fair coin). Sampling a
    >> random token with replacement, you observe the following sequence of draws:
    >
    >AAARRGGGHHH!

    How did those Argent, Green and Heliotrope tokens get in there with the
    Reds? Oh, I see: it's a Schrödinger puzzle. No, wait: the Blue tokens are
    neutrinonic, and change flavor. But no, then they couldn't add up to Blue;
    they must be gluonic.

    Damien Broderick

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