From: Brett Paatsch (paatschb@optusnet.com.au)
Date: Mon Jul 07 2003 - 18:35:59 MDT
Devon White writes:
> I love any problems that lead to a better understanding of the
> facts - even if it means our assumptions were nearly
> dead-wrong. Scientific rigor makes me aroused.
>
> ...Im wondering if there is anyone that has or would be
> willing to write an accessible update on the trajectories of
> cryonics, life extension, nanotechnology, etc. . . Any one of
> these topics or all of the above.
Why wouldn't every transhumanist with a computer be doing
this exercise for themselves? Start with what you know.
Your age. The default prognosis if nothing changes - you will
die around about when?
Then maybe ask what are the technologies and the social
activities that might change the default prognosis for you.
There are examples around of people who are making a good
fist of mapping *parts* of what are likely to impact on the future
in certain areas. In my view the social and political variables are
much harder to quantify but that's an aside.
The cheering section is always larger than the playing section
but when one thinks that it is ones own life that is at stake and
that putting ones shoulder to the wheel in some respect is likely
to increase one's own prognosis, the playing section may
increase in size.
It is harder to be a generalist and try and track all of the factors
that are likely to matter but if one starts with a draft one can
always improve on it. As one collects facts and finds others
doing the same thing one can get better at winnowing out
the hype from the dross.
> The best type of PR is based on facts. I mean, the fact that
> someday, some humans will live longer than we currently do
> - hell the fact that we live so much longer than our ancestors
> - is exciting! It seems to me that the best way to get people
> involved beyond this little circle is to promote the day to
> day facts. Tragedy and setbacks are great for this. They
> provide the drama and tension that's so emotionally charged
> for most people.
>
> The Evolution Is Being Broadcast
More broadcasters wouldn't hurt though. And as you say
the best type of PR is based on facts. The surest way for
one to get the facts is to have a self-empowering strategy
for finding them for oneself. As one does it why not slot
them into a document or some other structure that can be
peer reviewed.
Ignorance is no great virtual but we all start there and
ignorance is at least partly remediable, if one is honest
about it.
- Brett Paatsch
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