RE: extropian investment: Alteon (long)

From: Ramez Naam (mez@apexnano.com)
Date: Wed Jun 11 2003 - 15:57:49 MDT

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    Ramez Naam wrote:

    The potential market for ALT-711 is multiple billions of dollars per
    year.

    Rafal wrote:
    ### There is a lot of competition between blood pressure drugs, so
    even if the pie is huge, the slices can get thin. This is a source of
    uncertainty - if ALT-711 develops as something more than just a blood
    pressure drug in the minds of physicians and patients, the gain could
    be as you say, but otherwise sales could be disappointing.

     

    mez:

    True. There's no way to be sure of sales for the drug, if it ever
    makes it to market. Many factors, including marketing and the
    appearance of other treatments, will affect revenue figures for
    ALT-711.

     

    For what it's worth, I base my estimate of potential sales on:

    1) Sales figures for existing single hypertension drugs. For example,
    Merk's Cozaar is expected to generate $2.3 Billion in sales this year.

    2) The fact that ALT-711 appears to be complementary to existing
    hypertension drugs, rather than a competitor to them.

    3) The absence of other drugs that share ALT-711's mechanism, and thus
    the absence of any direct competitor for it, at least initially.

    4) The large population of people in the US with hypertension that is
    not currently controllable via other drugs (5 million, if I recall
    correctly).

    5) The probable approval of ALT-711 for other indications,
    specifically congestive heart failure in the short term. (Which I
    should have mentioned in the original post.)

     

    Alteon was definitely a better buy a few months ago at $1 / share. I
    wish I'd bought more then. Even so, at $5 / share or thereabouts now,
    I believe it remains quite attractive for the risk-tolerant investor.
    That window of attraction is small, though. By August at the latest
    the single largest unknown about Alteon's future will be resolved, and
    the stock price will reflect it.



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