RE: Killer app? RE: Extro-biz

From: Adrian Tymes (wingcat@pacbell.net)
Date: Wed Jun 04 2003 - 11:01:22 MDT

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    --- Gary Miller <garymiller@starband.net> wrote:
    > I won't claim this is an original idea because I
    > read about this on
    > Wired possibly a few years back and it was such a
    > good idea I can't
    > believe it hasn't popped up yet.

    It has. It's been done over and over and over again.
    The problem is the network effect: without a large
    number of users that travel within range of this
    device on a typical day, it has little value. But
    you don't get said large number of users even in the
    highest-population-density areas until after it
    starts having significant value. Catch 21, and no
    one has yet been able to solve it - though there have
    been many failed attempts that just wasted everyone's
    time and money. Indeed, from what I've heard, it was
    not atypical for purchasers of such a device to never
    once encounter anyone else who had a compatible device
    - to say nothing of a compatible profile entered into
    said device - in the months or years between
    purchasing it and ceasing to use it (tossing, leaving
    at home permanently, or whatever).

    The expansion to stores and medical facilities is a
    new twist - but, frankly, you'd have to push that
    aspect of the electronic ID almost exclusively before
    it would be adopted by enough people that the romantic
    connection side would become useful. And even that
    has similar prior examples (smart cards, for instance)
    where similar network effects come into play (if none
    of the stores I go to support this device, for
    instance, then I get no value from purchasing one).

    In short: find a way to beat the massive downside of
    the network effect, or your attempt to realize this
    idea will fizzle, just like everyone else's
    attempts.(Unfortunately, said downside is so massive
    that you
    might have trouble giving these things away - to
    merchants, medics, and customers - even ignoring
    concerns about how to make a profit without selling
    any devices.)



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