From: Hal Finney (hal@finney.org)
Date: Thu Jun 19 2003 - 10:59:26 MDT
Rafal had asked:
> Is there a market future on the possibility of AGI
> available on ideafutures?
I believe AGI means "artificial general intelligence"? Something like
that?
There are no claims on the "FX" idea futures game specifically referring
to this (I'm not sure how it differs from regular AI), but there are some
related claims:
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Robbie
Claim Robbie - Humanly mobile robot, by 2036
This claim describes a humanoid robot being in use as a worker in a
business, consumer service, military, civil service or scientific
capacity, before the year 2036. It is trading at 82%.
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=GoCh
Claim GoCh - Machine GO Champion by 2020
This is one of the oldest FX claims, going back to 1995. Go is generally
considered a better test of general intelligence than chess, and computers
are not very strong players compared to their chess abilities. It has
traded mostly in the 40% to 70% range and is now back to the low end,
at 45%.
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Tran
Claim Tran - Machine Translation by 2015
This asks for a computer translation program that can go between English
and one of French, German, Russian, Japanese or Chinese. The program has
to produce output equal or better in average quality to a professional
human translator. It is another old FX claim and has generally traded
in the 60% to 80% range, now at 67%.
While none of these claims ask precisely for an AI with fully human
capabilities, to some extent they would each require approximately
that level. The Go claim requires a very high level of ability, but of
course the problem domain is much simpler.
If you could come up with a definition of AI (or AGI, whatever), that
would provide clear criteria for judgement in some time frame, I could
introduce it as a claim. Anyone can add claims to the game.
Hal
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