From: Dehede011@aol.com
Date: Mon Jun 16 2003 - 14:53:27 MDT
In a message dated 6/16/2003 3:33:13 PM Central Standard Time,
rhanson@gmu.edu writes: I don't see how you could judge that there is enough info published,
and even if it were true you have to judge that you are much better and more
rational at analyzing that information that the other traders out there.
Unless you have a good reason for thinking this, you are the fool at the poker
table.
Yes, Robin. I do believe I have a very good reason to think so -- as would
you or anyone else, if you made my same assumptions.
My old college math professor used to say to pay particular attention
to assumptions. Am I correct in hearing two very different assumptions
between you and the market on the one hand but Buffet, myself, and some others on
the other hand?
I make no assumption about the market, about what it will do tomorrow,
next year or in ten years. I would just as soon never sell my investment.
Am I correct that you are assuming that the market and its movements are
important?
I don't intend to make money off the market. I am only asking is this
investment returning 15% on my money and is it likely to continue to do so?
Only after I consider that is a safe bet do I have a secondary interest in
what the market is doing, has done or might do.
But as far as understanding Buffet's methods. I believe he is so
different and so simple that people have a little problem dealing with him.
I said my grandfather used the same fundamental approach to buying
lifestock. First, he really knew his product (hogs & cattle chiefly) and he knew
his market (where he was going to make an immediate sale, he held nothing)
He would look at a lot of stock for sale. He could weight them with his eye,
and know exactly to whom he could sell even by the pound and cut if necessary.
He would determine his income, deduct his personal requirements for money,
deduct a safety margin and make an offer. He never knew what anything was worth
only what it was worth to him. The same goes for Buffet.
Ron h.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Mon Jun 16 2003 - 15:03:16 MDT