From: I William Wiser (will@wiserlife.com)
Date: Mon Jun 16 2003 - 14:50:04 MDT
> I William Wiser wrote:
> > Scientist figure out things other people
> > do not know with information that is widely available to
> > everyone. It seems like one could also figure out which
> > companies are over or under valued by the market given sufficient
> > diligence.
>
gts wrote:
> One would think so. But when real scientists (not the pseudoscientists of
> Wall Street) applied good science to the market they discovered that the
> current market price of a stock reflects the best estimate of the
company's
> value on any given day, and that to the extent that the current price may
be
> in error, there was no evidence that any non-insider participants in the
> market are able to capitalize on such errors consistently.
Okay I find it hard to give up on the idea that people can find ways to
out guess the market. But if we say it's about as hard as figuring out
a unified field theory or a cure for AIDS that might give us good
investment strategies while letting us keep our fantasies.
--Will
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