From: Dossy (dossy@panoptic.com)
Date: Sun Jun 15 2003 - 20:32:26 MDT
On 2003.06.15, gts <gts_2000@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> There are a small handful of people in this world, namely Buffet and Lynch,
> whose performance over time was so extraordinary that it is tempting to say
> they really have skill. But the number of people who have this alleged skill
> is so small that it becomes irrational to assume that just anyone can have
> it or obtain it. These gifted people, assuming they really exist, appear to
> belong to a different species of humans.
I agree, there is no such thing as market skill the way you describe it.
Again, I bring up the beauty pageant. The direction of the market is
influenced by a select few people (say, less than 10,000 people). Since
these are humans, it /may/ be possible to predict how /they/ will
interact with the market. If you can "ride the wave" that they create,
you should profit.
Is that market skill, still? If so, then I think there DOES exist some
amount of market skill. But definitely not the kind that says, "I can
predict future stock performance based on knowledge of the present and
the past." As you say, believing that statement to be true is
irrational.
-- Dossy
-- Dossy Shiobara mail: dossy@panoptic.com Panoptic Computer Network web: http://www.panoptic.com/ "He realized the fastest way to change is to laugh at your own folly -- then you can let go and quickly move on." (p. 70)
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