From: gts (gts_2000@yahoo.com)
Date: Sat Jun 14 2003 - 09:36:11 MDT
Dossy wrote:
> Exactly. What you want to look at are the "judges" in the
> beauty pageant, as I said. I'm talking about the Warren
> Buffets of the market ... buy what they buy when they buy it
> ... sell it before they do, if you can ...
Ahh, the "follow the smart money" theory.
Problem here is that science has never been able to prove the existence of
smart money in the market. See my last post to Rafal. The only real smart
money is the money invested in illegal insider trades. Neither intelligence
nor knowledge of public information buys one a superior return in the
market. However if you can *pretend* to be intelligent and knowledgeable
then you can be very successful as a broker or as a TV or radio stockmarket
guru. :)
Reminds me... back in 1985 I appeared on a PBS television show called
"Stockmarket Today." It was broadcast from a PBS station in the San Mateo Ca
area (the station was located at a college there somewhere, if I remember
correctly). At the time the Dow was only at about 1200, which by historical
standards was very high. I predicted on television that it would
nevertheless break the 2000 level within two years. People thought that was
a pretty bold prediction. But as you know the market took off and eventually
blew right through 10,000.
By the late 80's I was beginning to think I was a genius, until I started
applying my apparent genius to a more thorough and objective statistical
analysis of the market.
I learned through my own research that I was not a genius; that in reality I
was only some deluded stooge who happened to be at the right place at the
right time. I felt like that poor mentally retarded guy in "Flowers for
Algernon" who through some medical intervention becomes a genius, and then
through his genius realizes that he's destined to return to being retarded.
-gts
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Jun 14 2003 - 09:43:39 MDT