From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Fri Jun 13 2003 - 13:24:31 MDT
On Fri, 13 Jun 2003, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> And why would energy prices go up? It is a bit like the raw material
> price issue of the 70's where Simon trounced Ehrlich - when a
> commodity becomes scarce people have a strong incentive to find a
> replacement.
Agreed.
> Oil is an easy source of energy and carbon compounds,
> but there are clearly many ways of replacing these which at present
> are uneconomical to develop deeply.
I've got an economical solution, but one that I am starting
to believe will not be developed until the "crisis" develops
(something Simmons talks about).
> My prediction is that oil will run out but energy prices remain
> stable. Let's see what happens.
There is no question that the world has enough coal or nuclear
energy to last for hundreds of years (at current growth rates).
The question is whether that energy will be available when it
is needed? My home requires natural gas for both heat and hot
water. If the natural gas supply goes kaputsky I'm going to
be very unhappy and have to dedicate resources to investing
in electric water and home heaters. The same could be said
for my cars -- if gasoline becomes an obsolete fuel then my
cars that require it are likely to be devalued.
When I discuss "hitting the wall" it applies to the fact that
in the U.S. everyone is effectively "plugged in", to either
their electricity supplier, their natural gas supplier, their
oil supplier, their gasoline supplier, etc. A significant
disruption in this structure is going to hit very hard on
any economy. E.g. Where is Japan going to be without oil?
Where is Russia going to be without natural gas? [For those
that don't know Moscow is essentially centrally heated
by hot water produced at a limited number of power plants.
I would presume those power plants are in turn dependent
on cheap natural gas supplies. If the Europeans are willing
to pay high market prices for natural gas (most of which
comes from Russia), where does that leave the Russians???]
I'm not worried that things will eventually balance out --
I'm worried that the short term disruptions may be very
significant (and may slow developments).
Robert
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