Re: Predicting the Future

From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Sat May 24 2003 - 12:47:59 MDT

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    Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
    > I don't know how to give this message a proper subject line.
    > It seems to involve Copernicus, Gott, Kurzweil, Minsky, Caves
    > and Bayes to name a few.
    >
    > The original discussion started here:
    > http://nanodot.org/article.pl?sid=03/05/19/2235249
    > The more interesting article cited, esp. because of a number
    > of references to Bayesian theory, was:
    > C. M. Caves,
    > "Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment"
    > http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/astro-ph/0001414
    >
    > I don't recall if this has been discussed before, and the math
    > extends beyond the level I can easily deal with, but the topic discussed
    > seemed very interesting so I offer the URLs to the list.

    Nick Bostrom's been there, done that.
    http://anthropic-principle.com/ 

    -- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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