From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Sat May 24 2003 - 12:11:46 MDT
I don't know how to give this message a proper subject line.
It seems to involve Copernicus, Gott, Kurzweil, Minsky, Caves
and Bayes to name a few.
The original discussion started here:
http://nanodot.org/article.pl?sid=03/05/19/2235249
The more interesting article cited, esp. because of a number
of references to Bayesian theory, was:
C. M. Caves,
"Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment"
http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/astro-ph/0001414
I don't recall if this has been discussed before, and the math
extends beyond the level I can easily deal with, but the topic discussed
seemed very interesting so I offer the URLs to the list.
Robert
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