From: Greg Burch (gregburch@gregburch.net)
Date: Mon Apr 28 2003 - 06:45:16 MDT
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Emlyn O'regan
> Sent: Monday, April 28, 2003 2:29 AM
>
> Is the shuttle that screwed that it is no longer safe to put
> people in it???
That's the Big Question. Answering it in any precise way is impossible,
which makes the cumbersome, politically-driven process of recertifying
the shuttle for manned flight so difficult. The over-all STS system is
so complex that it's really not possible to make accurate statements
that it's "safe" or "not safe."
The question of safety has to be considered in the context of mission.
If timing and cost for shuttle flights weren't crucial, it could
probably be considered very safe, indeed. But with its role in the ISS
program, timing and cost ARE central. NASA is now irretrievably
committed to flying STS on time and a lot. Given the number and
complexity of subsystems involved, this pushes operational costs through
the roof. When pressed into the schedule demanded by ISS construction
and maintenance, the effort/cost curve goes near vertical well short of
the 100% safety point. That's the problem.
The maddening reality of politics drives manned space enthusiasts to
despair at this point of the analysis. Based on my reading and
analysis, I firmly believe that for the recurring cost of just four or
five shuttle flights (i.e. a couple of $billion), a much safer and more
reliable crew transfer system could be developed. But doing this would
require much more political will than can be mustered. The STS was
intentionally designed to have as broad and diverse a political
constituency as possible, in order to ensure its survival during the
lean years of the 1970s when it was developed. This is a case of a
brilliant political strategy from an earlier age that has visited a
curse on our time. Unfortunately, no one inside NASA can exercise the
kind of policy courage that would be required to allocate the funds, and
no one outside NASA (i.e. higher up in the Bush administration) has the
vision to make doing it a high enough political priority to exercise the
power to make it happen.
Thus the problem ...
Greg Burch
Vice-President, Extropy Institute
http://www.gregburch.net
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Mon Apr 28 2003 - 06:56:23 MDT