From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Fri Apr 25 2003 - 21:44:11 MDT
----- Original Message -----
From: <cryofan@mylinuxisp.com>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
Sent: Friday, April 25, 2003 4:44 PM
Subject: Re: Doomsday and Fermi
> "Keith M. Elis" <zarathustra_winced@yahoo.com> said:
>
> > Here's a thought that must have been raised by someone, but I haven't
the
> > breadth of experience to know.
> >
> > The Doomsday argument concludes, as it must, that the sum total of
humans
> > who will live is not much larger than the number of humans who have
already
> > lived. By Bayes' theorem, we must update our beliefs to incorporate the
> > statistical likelihood that our civilization's end is in sight
>
>
> Either that or in the near future human beings will stop having kids,
which
> makes a lot of sense to me.
>
### Since we do not a prior regarding the frequency of civilization
formation, Bayes' theorem does not entail these conclusions.
Rafal
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