Re: Doomsday and Fermi

From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Fri Apr 25 2003 - 21:44:11 MDT

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    ----- Original Message -----
    From: <cryofan@mylinuxisp.com>
    To: <extropians@extropy.org>
    Sent: Friday, April 25, 2003 4:44 PM
    Subject: Re: Doomsday and Fermi

    > "Keith M. Elis" <zarathustra_winced@yahoo.com> said:
    >
    > > Here's a thought that must have been raised by someone, but I haven't
    the
    > > breadth of experience to know.
    > >
    > > The Doomsday argument concludes, as it must, that the sum total of
    humans
    > > who will live is not much larger than the number of humans who have
    already
    > > lived. By Bayes' theorem, we must update our beliefs to incorporate the
    > > statistical likelihood that our civilization's end is in sight
    >
    >
    > Either that or in the near future human beings will stop having kids,
    which
    > makes a lot of sense to me.
    >
    ### Since we do not a prior regarding the frequency of civilization
    formation, Bayes' theorem does not entail these conclusions.

    Rafal



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