From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Thu Apr 24 2003 - 12:50:32 MDT
On Thu, 24 Apr 2003, Greg Burch wrote:
> My question is this: What are the best strategies for addressing SARS in
> the short, intermediate and long terms?
It isn't really clear. The virus seems to have a "now you see it, now
you don't" aspect to it.
See: Virus Proves Baffling, Turning Up in Only 40% of a Lab's Test Cases
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/24/science/24INFE.html?pagewanted=print
There are a number of possibilities:
1) It is mutating over time and the normal tests they use to identify
it (which I presume are Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) to amplify
the genome will not work every time) -- this will put it in a class
like HIV (but possibly spread through air droplets or fecal matter).
2) That it isn't really caused by a coronavirus at all and they haven't
really identified the causitive agent yet.
3) That some people have a natural immunity to it (since some show
infections but no symptoms).
In the short term one has to do what is already being done. Wear masks
where appropriate, follow quarantine rules, etc.
Now, on the TV this morning I heard comments to the effect that most of
the people who have died are either elderly or otherwise immunocompromised.
This only makes sense and implies that most people do not really need
to be fearful (as Anders points out).
In the short term the answer is to take reasonable precautions to avoid
it. In the intermediate term the answer is to push the science a little
bit harder. In the long term the answer is to develop a vaccine and
rapidly provide it to health care workers in SARS wards, general hospital
workers, the families and co-workers of SARS patients, and move outward
from there.
Its always important to keep in mind influenza kills (to my best very
rough guess) around 600,000 people a year [1] while SARS if it continues
at its present rate will only kill perhaps 500 people this year.
Robert
1. Assuming influenza kills ~30,000 people/yr in the U.S. and extrapolating
to the world population. The number of 600,000 may be somewhat lower
because in many countries of the world a different diseases/conditions
may kill you before you become old enough (and immunocompromized enough)
that influenza can kill you.
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