Re: SARS: Strategies

From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Thu Apr 24 2003 - 12:50:32 MDT

  • Next message: Rafal Smigrodzki: "RE: SARS: Strategies"

    On Thu, 24 Apr 2003, Greg Burch wrote:

    > My question is this: What are the best strategies for addressing SARS in
    > the short, intermediate and long terms?

    It isn't really clear. The virus seems to have a "now you see it, now
    you don't" aspect to it.

    See: Virus Proves Baffling, Turning Up in Only 40% of a Lab's Test Cases
    http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/24/science/24INFE.html?pagewanted=print

    There are a number of possibilities:
    1) It is mutating over time and the normal tests they use to identify
    it (which I presume are Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) to amplify
    the genome will not work every time) -- this will put it in a class
    like HIV (but possibly spread through air droplets or fecal matter).

    2) That it isn't really caused by a coronavirus at all and they haven't
    really identified the causitive agent yet.

    3) That some people have a natural immunity to it (since some show
    infections but no symptoms).

    In the short term one has to do what is already being done. Wear masks
    where appropriate, follow quarantine rules, etc.

    Now, on the TV this morning I heard comments to the effect that most of
    the people who have died are either elderly or otherwise immunocompromised.
    This only makes sense and implies that most people do not really need
    to be fearful (as Anders points out).

    In the short term the answer is to take reasonable precautions to avoid
    it. In the intermediate term the answer is to push the science a little
    bit harder. In the long term the answer is to develop a vaccine and
    rapidly provide it to health care workers in SARS wards, general hospital
    workers, the families and co-workers of SARS patients, and move outward
    from there.

    Its always important to keep in mind influenza kills (to my best very
    rough guess) around 600,000 people a year [1] while SARS if it continues
    at its present rate will only kill perhaps 500 people this year.

    Robert

    1. Assuming influenza kills ~30,000 people/yr in the U.S. and extrapolating
    to the world population. The number of 600,000 may be somewhat lower
    because in many countries of the world a different diseases/conditions
    may kill you before you become old enough (and immunocompromized enough)
    that influenza can kill you.



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