From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Thu Apr 24 2003 - 13:02:48 MDT
Civilizations which travel in space and loudly proclaiming their existence
by radio and other means we can detect, are apparently uncommon. This fact
can be the result of either uncommon genesis, common loss of interest in the
above activities, or common doom. No a priori anthropic argument can decide
between the alternatives. The optimist, then, will hope to be the result of
an uncommon event, which allows a reasonable expectation of extreme
longevity, perhaps disinterested in talking to primitives and not
contravened by observation. The pessimist worries that we are the products
of a common event, and therefore consigned to the outcome most compatible
with what we see.
Since our data on either the likelihood of spontaneous life emergence, or
the future of average sentient interest development, or the actual
cumulative extinction risk for a civilization of our type, are woefully
inadequate, the optimist and the pessimist will reach their conclusions
according to their predilections, while the Bayesian will not conclude
anything at all, aside from the need to search for new knowledge and to
carefully incorporate it in his reasoning.
Rafal
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