Re: MATH: Followup to Bayesian story problem

From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@yahoo.com)
Date: Mon Mar 31 2003 - 19:19:47 MST

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    --- "Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" <sentience@pobox.com> wrote:
    > Followup story problem:
    >
    > Q. Suppose that there are two barrels, each containing a number of
    > plastic eggs. In both barrels, some eggs are painted blue and the
    > rest
    > are painted red. In the first barrel, 90% of the eggs contain pearls
    > and
    > 20% of the pearl eggs are painted blue. In the second barrel, 45% of
    > the
    > eggs contain pearls and 60% of the empty eggs are painted red. Would
    > you
    > rather have a blue pearl egg from the first or second barrel?
    >
    > A. Actually, it doesn't matter which barrel you choose! Can you see
    > why?

    Yes, if you are going to guarrantee me a blue egg with a pearl in it
    from either barrel (as you state above), I don't care which barrel it
    comes from.

    =====
    Mike Lorrey
    "Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
                                                         - Gen. John Stark
    "Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell
    "Treason doth never Prosper. What is the Reason?
    For if it Prosper, none Dare call it Treason..." - Ovid

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