MATH: Followup to Bayesian story problem

From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Sat Mar 29 2003 - 11:15:52 MST

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    Followup story problem:

    Q. Suppose that there are two barrels, each containing a number of
    plastic eggs. In both barrels, some eggs are painted blue and the rest
    are painted red. In the first barrel, 90% of the eggs contain pearls and
    20% of the pearl eggs are painted blue. In the second barrel, 45% of the
    eggs contain pearls and 60% of the empty eggs are painted red. Would you
    rather have a blue pearl egg from the first or second barrel?

    A. Actually, it doesn't matter which barrel you choose! Can you see why?

    -- 
    Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
    Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
    


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