Re: SARS Re: update

From: Karen Rand Smigrodzki (KarenSmi@adelphia.net)
Date: Sat Mar 29 2003 - 15:23:31 MST

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    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "Michael M. Butler" <mmb@spies.com>
    To: <extropians@extropy.org>
    Sent: Saturday, March 29, 2003 4:11 PM
    Subject: Re: SARS Re: update

    > On Sat, 29 Mar 2003 15:14:07 -0500, Karen Rand Smigrodzki
    > <KarenSmi@adelphia.net> wrote:
    >
    > > It is still mainly an Asian worry. As of today, of the 1550 suspected
    > > cases, a full 1286 are in China & Taiwan.
    > >
    > > ---karen
    >
    > This is a statement suggesting relatively static analysis. New York has
    > some (5 allegedly confirmed, the last time I checked) cases. By a simple
    > population pattern diffusion model, I'm anticipating that San Francisco
    and
    > Oakland will, too. I live close to both of those towns.

    If you mean that the stats above (given by the WHO daily) are going to
    change daily, well, yes. California has 12 suspected cases as of March 28.
    New York has 8 suspected cases. I am wondering about your simple population
    pattern diffusion model. Could you explain to me your model please? Or
    perhaps you only meant to say that infectious diseases are so called because
    they are infectious and will spread in a population?

    --karen
    karen@smigrodzki.org



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