From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@yahoo.com)
Date: Fri Mar 28 2003 - 20:08:34 MST
--- John Grigg <starman2100@lycos.com> wrote:
> I would like to know how the rest of you think on the issue of the
> level of casualties we are likely to see before the war is over. I
> find myself totally disagreeing with Doug's view of minimal
> fatalities. I hope I am proved wrong in the end, but I seriously
> doubt it.
>
> Doug wrote:
> In WWII, the US had a 2:3 kill ratio (2 germans killed for every
> American).
> In Korea, the ratio was 4:1 (4 N Koreans/Chinese for each American).
> In Vietnam, the ratio was 15:1.
> In Gulf 1, the ratio was 400:1.
> In Mogadishu, the ratio was 50:1, but US forces made many serious
> operational errors (flying too low with lightly armored helicopters,
> driving through streets in unarmored trucks, no air support).
> (end)
>
> I appreciate the information, but I think I was not clear enough with
> my 15-1 statistic. What I meant was, for every fifteen U.S. troops
> in these theaters, one was seriously wounded or killed. This
> statistic has amazingly held over all major wars since WWII (with the
> big exception of the first Gulf War).
Actually, that statistic has not held over all major wars. For example,
Vietnam had 300,000 wounded and 50,000 killed. With 2.5 million served
time in theater, that is a bit less than 15 to one (which would be
375,000 total wounded or killed). If you compare with, say, the Civil
War, you have a serious problem. The US military in theater in the
Vietnam War was supported immensely by the logistical infrastructure of
the rest of the US military, particularly those bases in the
Phillipines, Okinawa, Japan, Korea, Guam, and the US west coast,
without which it could not have performed as it did in theater. The US
Civil War's theater was the continental eastern US, which entirely
enclosed the US military logistical infrastructure (as well as that of
the CSA). To properly compare the two, you'd have to count the entire
military in both conflicts, at which point you'd see the Vietnam
casualty rate was less than 1/10th that of the Civil War.
The primary contributor to figures like a 15 to 1 ratio is the simple
fact that most members of the military in theater historically have not
been combat units. The US expeditionary forces are slightly different
because there has been a big shift in the last 10-20 years toward
mobility, rapid deployment, and an "everybody fights" mentality as much
as possible. This is an attitude universal in all Marine units, for
example. Today, the only non-combat units are supply units, which in
this environment are exposed to combat while in convoy, and HQ cadres
and Naval Air and Air Force shipboard and ground units. Even then,
naval vessels are platforms for launching Tomahawks, and are subject to
mines and hit and run speedboats, while I hear that A-10 warthog units
have moved into seized bases inside Iraq.
Even by Gulf War I standards, todays US military is more highly mobile
and far more potent a force than before, and technology has become such
a mantra as THE force multiplier concept.
>
> If that statistic held for this conflict we would have 17,000 wounded
> or dead on our hands. I don't think when the dust settles it will be
> quite that high, but it could easily be in the thousands when you
> think of the nature of urban combat in a city of millions and the
> Republic Guard in civilian dress lurking in ambush at the local
> hospital or school.
If the Iraqis resort to chemical weapons and an urban war, I can easily
imagine the US casualties rising into the thousands. I can also see in
such situation that Iraqi on Iraqi casualties will be immensely high in
a typical terrorist "See what you made me do" manner. Even worse, it
seems that Saddam has a "if I can't own Iraq, nobody can" sort of
extreme scorched people policy.
None of this makes me think that freeing the Iraqi people isn't a good
idea, and I challenge anyone to claim otherwise, and claim they are in
any way supporters of ideas of universal human rights.
The 17,000 figure was based on the D-Day operation, which also notes
that there were 14,000 civilian French dead in the same period in that
local area. If the 80:20 figure also applies to civilians, then that
means there were 56,000 French civilians wounded in the same period and
area.
=====
Mike Lorrey
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
- Gen. John Stark
"Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell
"Treason doth never Prosper. What is the Reason?
For if it Prosper, none Dare call it Treason..." - Ovid
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