From: John Grigg (starman2100@lycos.com)
Date: Wed Mar 26 2003 - 23:49:25 MST
I would like to know how the rest of you think on the issue of the level of casualties we are likely to see before the war is over. I find myself totally disagreeing with Doug's view of minimal fatalities. I hope I am proved wrong in the end, but I seriously doubt it.
Doug wrote:
In WWII, the US had a 2:3 kill ratio (2 germans killed for every American).
In Korea, the ratio was 4:1 (4 N Koreans/Chinese for each American).
In Vietnam, the ratio was 15:1.
In Gulf 1, the ratio was 400:1.
In Mogadishu, the ratio was 50:1, but US forces made many serious
operational errors (flying too low with lightly armored helicopters,
driving through streets in unarmored trucks, no air support).
(end)
I appreciate the information, but I think I was not clear enough with my 15-1 statistic. What I meant was, for every fifteen U.S. troops in these theaters, one was seriously wounded or killed. This statistic has amazingly held over all major wars since WWII (with the big exception of the first Gulf War).
If that statistic held for this conflict we would have 17,000 wounded or dead on our hands. I don't think when the dust settles it will be quite that high, but it could easily be in the thousands when you think of the nature of urban combat in a city of millions and the Republic Guard in civilian dress lurking in ambush at the local hospital or school.
he continues:
A conservative but realistic estimate might be 200:1, midway between
Mogadishu and Gulf 1. Assuming that Saddam has 150,000 loyal troops who
will fight until they become casualties, US casualties can be estimated
at 750. Typically, 80% of casualties are wounded. Thus US fatalities
can be estimated at 150.
(end)
In the first (easy as cake?) Gulf War the combat deaths were 157. Don't think FOR A SECOND they will be that low this time around, if it is decided to go into Baghdad and pacify it!! We could easily lose ten times that number, or even more.
he continues:
Civilian casualties in Gulf 1 were estimated at 1 per 15 Iraqi soldiers.
Thus Iraqi civilian casualties can be estimated at 10,000, with about
20% fatalities, or 2000.
(end)
When U.S. artillery and air support go to the aid of desperate soldiers and marines screaming for help over the phone, I think things will start getting messy and many more civilians will be dying. Especially with the way Iraqi combatants like to use human shields.
he continues:
Based on these estimates I have not been particularly concerned about
Gulf 2. It is generally known that traffic fatalities in the US run to
about 80 per day, or 2400 per month. So far, US war fatalities have run
to about 4 per day.
(end)
Doug, your problem is you are playing with statistics without taking the realities of the situation into account. I actually hope you are right, but the very events being played out indicate we are in for a very fierce fight, and more and more on the enemies terms.
What do the rest of you think?
best wishes,
John
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