RE: [XTropes] (Iraq) This war a meatgrinder for the U.S.?

From: Gary Miller (garymiller@starband.net)
Date: Thu Mar 27 2003 - 09:32:14 MST

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    >>Based on these estimates I have not been particularly concerned about
    Gulf 2. It is generally known >> that traffic fatalities in the US run
    to about 80 per day, or 2400 per month. So far, US war
    >> fatalities have run to about 4 per day.

    Based on how many people we over there, how many of our people would be
    expected statisticly to die if they were stayed home from auto
    accidents, fires, street crime, suicides, etc...

    I thought I had read an analysis after Gulf War 1 that more people would
    have actually died if the Gulf War 1 didn't happen just from normal
    causes of death by staying home!

    Wouldn't it be ironic if the war actually saved American lives by
    keeping them out of harms way?

    Even more ironic is that the antiwar protests may actually be costing
    more American lives than the war by causing traffic accidents, and
    stopping traffic preventing fire, ambulance, and police from getting to
    where they are needed.
     

    -----Original Message-----
    From: owner-extropians@extropy.org [mailto:owner-extropians@extropy.org]
    On Behalf Of Doug Thayer
    Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2003 12:02 AM
    To: extropians@extropy.org
    Subject: Re: [XTropes] (Iraq) This war a meatgrinder for the U.S.?

    On Wed, Mar 26, 2003 at 06:58:41PM -0900, John Grigg wrote:
    > If we have the usual 15-1 casualties as in WWII or Viet Nam we could
    > wind
    > up with about 17,000 dead or maimed. With our superior technology and

    > firepower I don't think our casualties will be anywhere that bad, but
    I
    > could see the Gulf War's supposed 157 combat deaths being dwarfed by
    the
    > number fallen in this war. If the deaths on our side are not in the
    > thousands after the dust settles I will be happily shocked.

    In WWII, the US had a 2:3 kill ratio (2 germans killed for every
    American). In Korea, the ratio was 4:1 (4 N Koreans/Chinese for each
    American). In Vietnam, the ratio was 15:1. In Gulf 1, the ratio was
    400:1. In Mogadishu, the ratio was 50:1, but US forces made many serious

      operational errors (flying too low with lightly armored helicopters,
      driving through streets in unarmored trucks, no air support).

    A conservative but realistic estimate might be 200:1, midway between
    Mogadishu and Gulf 1. Assuming that Saddam has 150,000 loyal troops who

    will fight until they become casualties, US casualties can be estimated
    at 750. Typically, 80% of casualties are wounded. Thus US fatalities
    can be estimated at 150.

    Civilian casualties in Gulf 1 were estimated at 1 per 15 Iraqi soldiers.
    Thus Iraqi civilian casualties can be estimated at 10,000, with about
    20% fatalities, or 2000.

    Based on these estimates I have not been particularly concerned about
    Gulf 2. It is generally known that traffic fatalities in the US run to
    about 80 per day, or 2400 per month. So far, US war fatalities have run
    to about 4 per day.

    ----
    Doug
    
    




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