Re: [Iraq] Is Saddam Alive?

From: Christian Weisgerber (naddy@mips.inka.de)
Date: Wed Mar 26 2003 - 14:34:17 MST

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    John K Clark <jonkc@att.net> wrote:

    > I'd like to hear the opinion of some of the very bright people on this
    > list, do you think Saddam Hussein is alive?

    Who's to know?

    I would expect Iraqi resistance to falter quickly once Hussein was
    dead. Arguably, his lieutenants might decide to keep up the façade
    of him being alive in order to preserve their own power. But then
    again the experience with other dictators of this kind (Stalin,
    Ceaucescu) tells us that they do not surround themselves with that
    sort of smart and ambitious people, because those would be just the
    kind to potentially lead a coup d'état.

    > It has now been one week since a bunker the CIA thought he was
    > in was destroyed

    The CIA may have erred, the report of the destruction of the bunker
    may be a canard, or he may have been simply lucky.

    > and he must know about rumors floating around that he's dead or
    > badly injured, and those rumors can only weaken his regime, so
    > if he's alive and healthy I can't figure out why he doesn't put
    > a stop to them.

    But he does. He appears on TV.

    > but all we've heard from Mr. Hussein is generic speeches that
    > could have been taped a month before fighting started,

    But do you think his fervent supporters will share this doubt?
    (BTW, have you actually seen any of his speeches? Everybody here
    who understands Arabic, please raise your hand.)

    If those claims about his doubles are true, ascertaining that any
    incarnation of him the Coalition forces manage to get hold of dead
    or alive is the real one will be fun. They'll have to round up the
    whole family--remember, his sons are said to have multiple doubles,
    too--and do a mass DNA comparison.

    The most hilarious thing that could happen would be Hussein pulling
    another Usama bin Ladin, disappearing, possibly dead, possibly
    alive, a phantom.

    > including praise for his army's 51's division that surrendered
    > in the opening hours of the war and no longer exists.

    According to the Russians, that surrender is a complete propaganda
    fabrication. Whom are we to believe?

    One of the TV commentators here explained that Hussein disappeared
    during the previous Gulf War, too, only to reappear unharmed in the
    end. I don't recall that in any detail.

    There is also the proposal that Hussein has been wounded. Which
    would neatly explain pre-recorded TV appearances (showing a wounded
    leader would be demoralizing) and continued resistance (as long as
    he's alive, his regime will not falter).

    It's all idle speculation. Have some patience. It will take a few
    years anyway before we'll have a chance to learn with some confidence
    what truly happened during this war.

    -- 
    Christian "naddy" Weisgerber                          naddy@mips.inka.de
    


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