From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Feb 11 2003 - 13:45:45 MST
--- Spudboy100@aol.com wrote:
> Nanowave noted:
> <<http://www.redherring.com/insider/2003/02/moore021003.html >>
>
> Good article but forget about forgeting. Moores Law will be held as a
> standard, and will be remembered as the bright light of the glory
> days of computing. I will err on the side of pessimism, in this
> case, because there may be a practical limit, in electronics, for
> our epoch. Other systems may come along, providing optical laser
> computing, or bio-source computing. But
> they won't imitate silicon's amazing growth during the 20th and early
> 21st centuries.
We have yet to see optical computing reach the market, which isn't due
until 2005. This should cause Moore's Law to hit the roof, not the
floor.
The pessimism of Google's chief should be taken as either a measure of
impending buyout talks, or else that neural networking is a better
architecture for his sort of knowledge tasks than a monolithic
chip/motherboard paradigm. In an age where he is likely seeing slowly
declining ad revinue, cutting costs is more important right now that
improving performance.
Google's servers are not the bottleneck for his customers, either. It
is still the 'last mile' which is the largest chunk of page load times.
As their customers invest in ever faster home computers, they can use
applets to transfer some of their processing work to the customers
computer, as well.
>
> Like I said, I will err on the side of pessimism today. Maybe the new
> epoch
> will bring rapid advances in genetic technology, materials science,
> and
> perhaps even interplanetary travel. So it may be, away from the
> realm of
> Gates, and back to the establishment of Heinlein, made flesh?
>
=====
Mike Lorrey
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
- Gen. John Stark
"Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell
"Treason doth never Prosper. What is the Reason?
For if it Prosper, none Dare call it Treason..." - Ovid
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