From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rms2g@virginia.edu)
Date: Wed Feb 05 2003 - 14:33:37 MST
owner-extropians@extropy.org wrote:
> In a message dated 2/4/2003 2:40:21 PM Central Standard Time,
> rms2g@virginia.edu writes: The main challenges to nuclear power
> (aside from irrational fears of the greens) are terrorism and the
> fact that the peaceful nuclear technologies can be easily subverted
> for weapon production.
>
> Rafal,
> I seem to remember that in the late 60s Herman Kahn wrote a
> book called The Next Two Hundred Years. As I recall he predicted a
> particular peak population of about 15 to 25 billion in the year 2176
> AD. He also assumed the per capita use of energy would continue
> growing at the same rate as it has in modern America and would spread
> to the rest of the world's population on the same basis.
> He then made various predictions as to whether or not the
> Earth could be made to produce the necessary amount of food and other
> where withal without resort to resources from space. As I recall he
> felt that the Earth could sustain us.
> However, I remember distinctly that when he looked at the
> availability of nuclear material he calculated that energy from
> nuclear sources was entirely too limited to become much more than a
> secondary source of energy. I seem to remember that he thought
> nuclear energy was just a passing thing. The ore supply isn't there
> as far as he could tell at that time. I am getting into this
> discussion late but has Kahn's viewpoint been discussed?
### AFAIK, nuclear fission could sustain our civilization for hundreds if
not thousands of years - there is a huge amount of thorium, which can be
used with some modifications of current technologies, the usefulness of
uranium can greatly multiplied with breeder reactors (I know, they are
expensive and fault-prone, but I am merely describing the technical
possibilities, not the optimal solutions), so if we really wanted, we could
have a 100% nuclear economy.
Rafal
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