From: Dehede011@aol.com
Date: Tue Feb 04 2003 - 15:34:32 MST
In a message dated 2/4/2003 2:40:21 PM Central Standard Time,
rms2g@virginia.edu writes: The main challenges to nuclear power (aside from
irrational fears of the greens) are terrorism and the fact that the peaceful
nuclear technologies can be easily subverted for weapon production.
Rafal,
I seem to remember that in the late 60s Herman Kahn wrote a book
called The Next Two Hundred Years. As I recall he predicted a particular
peak population of about 15 to 25 billion in the year 2176 AD. He also
assumed the per capita use of energy would continue growing at the same rate
as it has in modern America and would spread to the rest of the world's
population on the same basis.
He then made various predictions as to whether or not the Earth could
be made to produce the necessary amount of food and other where withal
without resort to resources from space. As I recall he felt that the Earth
could sustain us.
However, I remember distinctly that when he looked at the availability
of nuclear material he calculated that energy from nuclear sources was
entirely too limited to become much more than a secondary source of energy.
I seem to remember that he thought nuclear energy was just a passing thing.
The ore supply isn't there as far as he could tell at that time.
I am getting into this discussion late but has Kahn's viewpoint been
discussed? BTW, I looked on Amazon.com and his book is still available on
the 2nd hand market.
Ron h.
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